John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 5

COLONEL CALIENTE

C '22 · ARMY MULE × ONE HOT SENORITA

Trainer: MORSE RANDY L · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

82.1

Speed fig

53.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.08
  • Speed Fig Consistency +1.63
  • Today Track Code +0.49
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.44
  • Today Field Size +0.36

Pushing prediction down

  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.69
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.37
  • Run Style E -0.12
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.10
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-24 OP 6f Dirt 2 3.8 84 90 4-3p;btwn str;up place
2026-04-02 OP 6f Dirt 6 6.3 73 86 4-3p; no closing bid
2026-03-07 OP 6f Dirt 1 2.8 87 84 Bid4p5/16; drew clear
2026-02-14 OP 6f Dirt 6 9.0 79 88 Stalked 5p early; wknd
2026-01-08 TP 6.5f Dirt 12 52.3 1 85 2p;outrun;eased
2025-11-22 CD 7f Dirt 8 10.8 74 89 Chsd 4p;place bid;fade
2025-10-22 KEE 6f Dirt 2 1.5 86 90 2w;led 4-5p upr;bested
2025-09-14 CD 7f Dirt 4 3.3 82 89 2w-3p;led 5/16-1/8;yld
2025-08-23 ELP 7f Dirt 1 3.0 88 82 Vied 3wd;drew clear1/4
2025-07-13 ELP 1m Dirt 6 9.0 73 90 Through after half ins