John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 4

SHADOW COAST

C '22 · WEST COAST × OVERPREPARED

Trainer: CRICHTON ROHAN G · Jockey: SAEZ LUIS

Today's prediction

81.4

Speed fig

65.9%

In-the-money

Last 11 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.38
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.64
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.59
  • Today Track Code +0.39
  • Weight Change From Last +0.25

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.13
  • Tj Combo Roi 365d -0.11
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.10
  • Early Late Pace Diff Last 5 -0.08
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.08

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-16 CD 6f Dirt 4 2.3 81 87 Bmps;vie 3w;yield late
2026-04-25 CD 6f Dirt 1 0.8 84 84 Bmp;3pbtw;5w upr;edged
2026-02-15 GP 7f Dirt 3 7.0 74 85 2p;between1/4;weakened
2025-11-09 CD 6f Dirt 4 2.8 83 89 Ins winnr-2p;yield btw
2025-09-24 CD 6f Dirt 1 0.5 88 81 2p;met bid1/8;held frm
2025-08-01 ELP 5.5f Turf 8 5.5 76 82 Chased 5wd;left lead
2025-06-06 CD 5.5f Turf 4 2.5 78 86 Prompted ins-3p;evenly
2025-05-15 CD 7f Dirt 7 4.3 78 86 Vied ins winner;faded
2025-04-26 CD 6.5f Dirt 3 6.8 80 86 Ins winner5/16;gave wy
2025-03-12 FG 1.06m Dirt 5 5.8 85 88 Ins;brshd ins trio;yld
2025-02-15 FG 6f Dirt 6 11.3 70 88 Prmpt 2w-3p;wknbtw upr