John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 1

SLIDER

H '21 · JIMMY CREED × DAYS LIKE THIS

Trainer: LOVELL MICHELLE · Jockey: CONCEPCION AXEL

Today's prediction

79.0

Speed fig

46.6%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.84
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.35
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.06
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean +0.24
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.52
  • Num Career Starts -0.39
  • Class Par Trend -0.25
  • Days Since Last Race -0.21
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.20

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-02-16 FG 5.5f Turf 4 10.3 78 91 Bmp;ins;shft out;imprv
2025-12-06 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 4.8 75 87 Chased/duel turn empty
2025-10-17 KEE 5.5f Turf 10 15.8 67 Chsd 3w;5-6p upr;faded
2025-04-26 OP 5.5f Dirt 7 6.0 86 100 Remained back 3w
2025-03-07 SA 6.5f Dirt 5 6.0 88 96 Speed ins;yielded uppr
2025-02-01 SA 6f Dirt 3 3.3 91 96 2-3w-ins;no late punch
2025-01-03 SA 6.5f Dirt 3 2.0 95 97 Duel inside; stayed on
2024-12-01 DMR 5f Turf 8 5.5 87 96 Brk in/bp;2w;no menace
2024-10-10 KEE 6f Dirt 3 2.5 89 Prompt 2wbtw;outkck1/8
2024-01-06 SA 7f Dirt 3 3.0 90 101 Vied insd/2wd;miss 2nd