John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 7

FINAL SHIPMAN

F '23 · MIDSHIPMAN × FINAL ADVENTURE

Trainer: JACOBSON DAVID · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

72.1

Speed fig

33.0%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.31
  • Today Field Size +0.27
  • Distance Change From Last +0.20
  • Today Track Code +0.19
  • Last Speed Fig +0.16

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.26
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.74
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.42
  • Today Post Position -0.32
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.29

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-23 KEE 6.5f Dirt 2 5.5 74 79 Ins-2p;5p1/4;ran on
2026-04-03 EVD 6f Dirt 4 8.5 74 83 Brief speed; faded
2026-03-14 OP 6f Dirt 6 10.8 66 Vied outside; gave way
2026-02-11 DED 5f Dirt 1 1.0 80 87 Shr cmd; clrd; lasted
2025-12-04 FG 6f Dirt 6 17.8 52 82 Retreated 1/4; eased
2025-10-31 CD 1m Dirt 7 28.5 55 83 Ins;headed 5/16;wknd
2025-10-03 KEE 6f Dirt 7 13.8 64 Inside; no imapct
2025-09-15 IND 5.5f Dirt 1 4.3 68 63 2p;rally3/16;mild drvp
2025-08-16 ELP 5.5f Dirt 6 18.3 43 71 Stalked ins; tired