John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 4

WATERSHED MOMENT

F '22 · OMAHA BEACH × TIZ BRISKA

Trainer: BALTAS RICHARD · Jockey: BEJARANO R

Today's prediction

74.6

Speed fig

51.5%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +0.48
  • Today Field Size +0.32
  • Today Track Code +0.25
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.24
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.37
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.73
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.57
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.50
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.29

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-17 KEE 1.06m Dirt 2 8.8 78 81 Cleared; no match 3/16
2026-03-08 SA 1m Dirt 2 2.8 70 77 Brief lead5/16;2ndbest
2026-02-13 SA 6f Turf 5 13.0 55 79 Inside;drifted bit 1/4
2025-08-29 DMR 5f Turf 9 16.5 52 83 3deep;dropped bck turn
2025-02-16 SA 1.13m Turf 82 Easd;pull up3/16;walkd
2025-01-20 SA 1m Turf 9 8.5 71 82 Stalked 3wide; faded
2024-10-12 SA 1m Dirt 8 42.0 31 83 Vied4-2w1st;tired;easd
2024-09-06 DMR 1m Turf 78 Crashed thru rail 1/8