John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 3

ONE HAPPY ISLAND

F '22 · UNCLE MO × FULL SWING

Trainer: KORDENBROCK MATT · Jockey: ACHARD ALEX

Today's prediction

75.7

Speed fig

26.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.69
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.37
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.28
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.25
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.21

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -0.60
  • Today Field Size -0.56
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.50
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.50
  • Distance Change From Last -0.38

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-16 KEE 5.5f Turf 3 3.8 76 85 3p;split 1/8;edge show
2026-02-25 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 3.3 77 82 2p;btw;5p3/16;willngly
2026-01-14 TP 6f Dirt 3 3.8 74 81 3-5p;outkckd;lost crop
2025-12-11 TP 6f Dirt 4 3.8 74 81 Svd grnd; minimal gain
2025-11-13 CD 5f Turf 7 3.0 72 81 Beat slw;7p upr;mvd up
2025-10-23 KEE 1m Turf 6 4.5 77 81 Track 3p;5p upr;chased
2025-08-30 KD 6f Turf 3 3.8 78 81 Outside;4-5w;kept on
2025-03-22 TP 6f Dirt 9 14.5 62 80 Through at the half
2025-02-06 TP 6f Dirt 2 0.5 80 81 Erratic str run for 2d
2025-01-02 TP 1m Dirt 4 7.0 72 78 Improved position str