John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 5

BIRCH RUN

F '23 · PRACTICAL JOKE × DORIA ROAD

Trainer: MCGEE PAUL · Jockey: LEPAROUX JULIEN R

Today's prediction

75.3

Speed fig

24.7%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.39
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.35
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.33
  • Today Track Code +0.24
  • Last Speed Fig +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.62
  • Today Field Size -0.46
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.43
  • BRIS Prime Power -0.36
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.33

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-12 KEE 1m Turf 6 5.0 81 81 Ins;moved up btw late
2026-01-18 GP 1.06m Dirt 10 10.3 72 79 Step slow;ins;no avail
2025-11-22 GP 1.06m Dirt 2 1.0 74 78 Ins-2w;gaining late
2025-10-25 GP 7.5f Turf 2 1.3 75 82 Stp slw;2w;closed well
2025-09-27 GP 1m Turf 3 4.3 69 76 Bid 3w;outkicked;up 3d
2025-08-21 SAR 7f Dirt 4 4.8 76 73 Chased 3-4w; kept on
2025-07-24 SAR 6f Dirt 6 17.0 56 85 3-4p turn;no response
2025-07-03 SAR 5.5f Dirt 2 5.5 72 88 Bumped st; ran on
2025-06-13 GP 5f Dirt 3 5.5 74 83 Off slw;4-5w uppr