Derby 2026
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PP 2

BEAR RIVER

R '21 · FLAMEAWAY × SIXTYFIVENORTH

Trainer: DESORMEAUX J KEITH · Jockey: GRAHAM J

Today's prediction

85.8

Speed fig

19.0%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.07
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.02
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.00
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.99
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.32

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.80
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 -0.27
  • Prior Starts At Churchill -0.21
  • Days Since Last Race -0.18
  • BRIS Dist Pedigree -0.16

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-04 KEE 5.5f Turf 9 4.3 88 96 Slight steady 9/16;ins
2026-02-14 FG 5.5f Turf 3 1.3 87 95 Duel ins;fought on
2026-01-17 FG 5.5f Turf 3 3.0 91 95 Close up ins; out-fin
2025-11-27 FG 6f Dirt 7 9.3 82 97 No factor
2025-11-01 DMR 5f Turf 11 11.3 84 98 3-4wide turn; faded
2025-08-30 KD 6f Turf 1 0.5 99 97 Inside/off rail; held
2025-08-03 ELP 5.5f Turf 1 0.3 91 93 Prompt 2wd; up late
2025-07-04 IND 5f Turf 3 3.0 87 96 Dueled;no match late
2025-01-18 FG 5.5f Dirt 7 17.0 69 94 Hard duel 2wd;faltered
2024-12-21 FG 5.5f Turf 1 2.3 95 94 2p;driftd out;held swy