John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 10

JOE SHIESTY

G '21 · AIR FORCE BLUE × READY TO UNLEASH

Trainer: FOSTER ERIC · Jockey: DE LA CRUZ FERNANDO

Today's prediction

90.7

Speed fig

29.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.33
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.27
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.56
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.25
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.99

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Post Position -0.35
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.34
  • Num Career Starts -0.27
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.22
  • Today Track Code -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-04 KEE 5.5f Turf 5 1.5 92 96 Ins;shk free;cght 1/16
2026-03-07 TP 6f Dirt 1 6.3 90 93 Drew off;much bst;drvg
2025-12-21 TP 6f Dirt 1 0.1 97 99 Ins;shft out;held firm
2025-11-27 CD 5.5f Turf 7 3.3 87 Ins;lack room/stdy 1/8
2025-10-04 KEE 5.5f Turf 3 0.5 94 96 Step slow;keen ins;bid
2025-08-03 ELP 5.5f Turf 8 3.5 85 93 Stuttered step st;ins
2025-06-07 CD 5f Turf 1 0.3 93 95 Sped clear;lasted late
2024-11-24 CD 5.5f Turf 2 1.3 89 Ins;duel;led1/16;bestd
2024-11-03 CD 5.5f Dirt 2 3.3 91 Ins winner;held place
2024-10-06 KEE 5.5f Turf 1 0.5 94 Clear pace; held late