John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 4

WAYS AND MEANS

M '21 · PRACTICAL JOKE × STRONG INCENTIVE

Trainer: BROWN CHAD C · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

97.7

Speed fig

60.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +9.51
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +3.66
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +2.39
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.54
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +1.16

Pushing prediction down

  • Days Since Last Race -1.02
  • Today Track Code -0.40
  • Starts Last 180d -0.36
  • Num Career Starts -0.33
  • Class Par Trend -0.18

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-06-06 SAR 7f Dirt 1 7.8 107 99 3p;lead3/16;power away
2025-05-03 CD 7f Dirt 3 3.8 101 101 Between foes;willingly
2024-11-02 DMR 7f Dirt 5 1.3 102 101 Split; bumped; gave in
2024-09-29 BAQ 6.5f Dirt 1 4.0 101 98 2p turn;powered away
2024-08-03 SAR 7f Dirt 1 2.5 99 99 Out;3p;lead1/4;clr3/16
2024-06-06 SAR 1m Dirt 1 8.3 106 91 Awkward brk;bmpd;3w
2024-05-03 CD 1.13m Dirt 4 10.5 85 101 Prompt 3-2w;faded upr
2024-03-30 GP 1.06m Dirt 2 1.0 94 95 Stdy1st;6p;3w far;drft
2023-09-03 SAR 7f Dirt 2 0.5 93 94 Tkn up3/4;clippd heels
2023-08-06 SAR 6f Dirt 1 12.8 98 85 Bmp hard brk;handily