John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 3

AUTUMN EVENING

M '21 · MALIBU MOON × LUCKY LONG

Trainer: D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

83.0

Speed fig

27.0%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.10
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.62
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.83
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.81
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.75

Pushing prediction down

  • Days Since Last Race -1.31
  • Today Track Code -0.49
  • Num Career Starts -0.37
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.27
  • Starts Last 180d -0.27

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-03-29 GP 1.06m Turf 9 9.8 89 91 Outrun 3wd
2025-02-15 GP 1.06m Dirt 3 1.5 93 96 Bump st; 4-3wd; rally
2025-01-02 GP 6f Dirt 1 0.1 90 88 3w5/16;5p str;edge pst
2024-12-08 AQU 6f Dirt 3 2.3 90 94 Pressed;bid2w;flattend
2024-11-10 AQU 1m Dirt 1 0.3 85 90 3p turn;bid1/4;dueled
2024-08-31 SAR 6f Dirt 4 4.5 91 93 Alter 5 1/2; mild kick
2024-07-04 BAQ 6.5f Dirt 4 8.0 88 93 Off step slw;3-2p turn
2024-05-04 BAQ 1m Dirt 1 5.3 86 87 7w upper; drew clear
2024-03-09 AQU 6f Dirt 1 1.5 86 87 Out;3p;lead ins5/16
2023-12-20 TAM 6.5f Dirt 5 8.5 64 80 Btwn;svd gnd;evenly