Sat, May 2
Race 14
Md Sp Wt
Post: 8:33 · 7f · Dirt · $120K purse · 12 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 12 of 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #10 CHIANTI TOWN (EP, QSP 4)
- #6 PRIZE PICK (EP, QSP 3)
- #13 NOBLE ANTHEM (E, QSP 2)
6 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
6-horse A,B,C box on posts 8, 6, 10, 13, 3, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$120.00
120 combos
Hit prob
18.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$1019.38
mean $1386.52
Expected ROI
+115.6%
net $138.67
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 6-horse A,B,C box on posts [8, 6, 10, 13, 3, 2] — hits 18.7% of simulated runs
- · At $120 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $1019 (mean $1387; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 6
B Contenders
10, 13, 3
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 5.5% | $1173.83 | +330% |
| 6-horse box | $120.00 | 19.1% | $414.94 | +51% |
| 5-horse box | $60.00 | 10.9% | $895.82 | +74% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.9% | $997.00 | +257% |
| 3×5×5 part wheel | $36.00 | 7.3% | $895.82 | +81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | APFIND NO FAULT | 4.5-1 | 3.4-1 | ↑6.0-1 | 75.3 | 14% | 39% | ·+2% |
| 6 | AEPPRIZE PICK | 12-1 | 14-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 78.1 | 13% | 38% | ·+1% |
| 10 | BEPCHIANTI TOWN | 20-1 | 26-1 | ↑28-1 | 75.6 | 11% | 32% | ▲+23% |
| 13 | BENOBLE ANTHEM | 20-1 | 43-1 | ↑37-1 | 74.1 | 9% | 27% | ▲+21% |
| 3 | BINTERROGATOR | 6.0-1 | 5.6-1 | ·6.0-1 | 69.4 | 8% | 25% | ▼-12% |
| 7 | ACT OF PARLIAMENT | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | ↑11-1 | 68.7 | 8% | 24% | ·+3% |
| 2 | CSBESTBALL | 30-1 | 51-1 | ·32-1 | 73.4 | 8% | 23% | ▲+16% |
| 9 | BIG JAKE | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | ↓1.4-1 | 67.8 | 7% | 21% | ▼-79% |
| 1 | BOYLSTON | 10-1 | 12-1 | ·11-1 | 68.9 | 7% | 21% | ·-0% |
| 14 | BRAVE PILOT | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | ↑15-1 | 67.2 | 6% | 20% | ·+4% |
| 4 | SLEEPING WARRIOR | 15-1 | 35-1 | ·18-1 | 67.7 | 5% | 15% | ·+2% |
| 12 | SBIG BRACIOLE | 30-1 | 56-1 | ·36-1 | 64.0 | 5% | 14% | ▲+7% |
| 5 | SCRDON'S WINNER | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | SCRPGREAT MOMENT | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 14 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.