John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R13

PP 2

HEARTILY

g '23 · COMPLEXITY × WE LOVE LUCY

Trainer: WARD WESLEY A · Jockey: VELAZQUEZ J R

Today's prediction

78.2

Speed fig

23.2%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.49
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.09
  • Today Track Code +0.39
  • Num Career Starts +0.32
  • Distance Change From Last +0.24

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.67
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.59
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.47
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.44
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.30

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-01-15 TP 6.5f Dirt 6 6.0 70 90 Tug;3p;6pbtw upr;yield
2025-10-25 KEE 6f Dirt 4 25.5 51 91 Stp slw;prmpt 2w;caved
2025-10-04 KEE 6f Dirt 1 6.5 88 89 Ins;drew off;driving