Thu, Apr 30
Race 6
UAEPrsCp-G1
Post: 3:29 · 1.25m · Dirt · $400K purse · 36 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
36 runnersUnprojectable
36 of 36 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
36 of 36 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 6
B Contenders
6, 6, 4
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | BRB BADONKADONK | 1.2-1 | 1.0-1 | 68.9 | 3% | 10% | ▼-90% |
| 6 | BRB BADONKADONK | 1.2-1 | 1.0-1 | 68.9 | 3% | 10% | ▼-90% |
| 6 | BRB BADONKADONK | 1.2-1 | 1.0-1 | 68.9 | 3% | 10% | ▼-90% |
| 6 | BRB BADONKADONK | 1.2-1 | 1.0-1 | 68.9 | 3% | 10% | ▼-90% |
| 4 | BDIAMOND GEM AA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 68.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-64% |
| 4 | BDIAMOND GEM AA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 68.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-64% |
| 4 | BDIAMOND GEM AA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 68.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-64% |
| 4 | BDIAMOND GEM AA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 68.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-64% |
| 5 | HIGHH COUNTRY | 10-1 | 14-1 | 67.5 | 3% | 9% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | HIGHH COUNTRY | 10-1 | 14-1 | 67.5 | 3% | 9% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | HIGHH COUNTRY | 10-1 | 14-1 | 67.5 | 3% | 9% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | HIGHH COUNTRY | 10-1 | 13-1 | 67.4 | 3% | 8% | ▼-15% |
| 8 | WMA SMOKE SIGNAL | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 67.2 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 8 | WMA SMOKE SIGNAL | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 67.2 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 8 | WMA SMOKE SIGNAL | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 67.2 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 8 | WMA SMOKE SIGNAL | 8.0-1 | 8.1-1 | 67.2 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 3 | HIGHH STAKES | 20-1 | 29-1 | 66.9 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 3 | HIGHH STAKES | 20-1 | 29-1 | 66.9 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 3 | HIGHH STAKES | 20-1 | 29-1 | 66.9 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 3 | HIGHH STAKES | 20-1 | 29-1 | 66.9 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 7 | WMA GRAND FINALE | 15-1 | 20-1 | 66.0 | 3% | 8% | ▼-8% |
| 7 | WMA GRAND FINALE | 15-1 | 20-1 | 66.0 | 3% | 8% | ▼-8% |
| 7 | WMA GRAND FINALE | 15-1 | 20-1 | 66.0 | 3% | 8% | ▼-8% |
| 7 | WMA GRAND FINALE | 15-1 | 20-1 | 66.0 | 3% | 8% | ▼-8% |
| 1 | WMA WILD KISSES | 20-1 | 32-1 | 66.6 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 1 | WMA WILD KISSES | 20-1 | 32-1 | 66.6 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 1 | WMA WILD KISSES | 20-1 | 32-1 | 66.6 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 1 | WMA WILD KISSES | 20-1 | 32-1 | 66.6 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 2 | AA TAKE A CHANCE | 10-1 | 14-1 | 66.3 | 3% | 8% | ▼-16% |
| 2 | AA TAKE A CHANCE | 10-1 | 14-1 | 66.3 | 3% | 8% | ▼-16% |
| 2 | AA TAKE A CHANCE | 10-1 | 14-1 | 66.3 | 3% | 8% | ▼-16% |
| 2 | AA TAKE A CHANCE | 10-1 | 14-1 | 66.3 | 3% | 8% | ▼-16% |
| 9 | QUICK RAE AA | 12-1 | 18-1 | 65.3 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
| 9 | QUICK RAE AA | 12-1 | 18-1 | 65.3 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
| 9 | QUICK RAE AA | 12-1 | 18-1 | 65.3 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
| 9 | QUICK RAE AA | 12-1 | 18-1 | 65.3 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
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