John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 4

MO WORK

G '22 · OUTWORK × OUTRAGEOUS MISS

Trainer: SIMMS MARK JR · Jockey: SAEZ LUIS

Today's prediction

86.3

Speed fig

43.8%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.20
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.22
  • Last Speed Fig +0.94
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.88
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.63

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.26
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.15
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.09
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.08
  • Early Late Pace Diff Last 5 -0.06

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-16 KEE 7f Dirt 1 1.5 97 91 Stalk 3-4p;inchd clear
2026-02-19 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 11.5 73 92 Press winner;gave way
2025-11-27 CD 6f Dirt 6 12.0 80 95 Chsd 2wbtw;fade 3p trn
2025-06-26 CD 5.5f Dirt 1 1.5 81 85 Vie 3w;lng drv; edged
2025-06-12 CD 6f Dirt 2 3.8 84 90 Jstld erly;ins;hld plc
2025-04-08 KEE 7f Dirt 8 13.3 78 92 Chased 5-4p; faded