John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 1

EMPIRE BUILDER

G '19 · CLASSIC EMPIRE × BALLAD

Trainer: HERNANDEZ ARMANDO · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

84.2

Speed fig

48.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.92
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.19
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.83
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.75
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.62

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.71
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.23
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.17
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last -0.12
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-15 OP 6f Dirt 6 10.8 78 91 Brk in;4w 3/8; tired
2026-02-16 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 8.0 81 93 Pull1st;2p;cue5/16;yld
2026-01-04 OP 1.06m Dirt 5 7.8 85 Got out 1/4; faltered
2025-12-14 OP 1m Dirt 3 3.8 93 90 Bmp brk;duel;clr rest
2025-09-19 PRM 1m Dirt 2 0.1 94 83 Pressured;fought back
2025-07-31 HAW 1.04m Dirt 1 6.5 87 88 Duel outs;pull clr;drv
2025-06-05 HAW 1.04m Dirt 1 16.8 101 81 Brk in;bmp;ins-2w;easy
2025-03-09 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 6.0 88 85 Weakened when headed
2025-02-14 OP 1.06m Dirt 2 6.0 91 91 Pace; 2p;saved 2nd
2025-01-05 OP 1.06m Dirt 8 17.5 72 94 Nothing left drive