John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 2

AERATE

C '22 · CANDY RIDE × DUCRU

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: ASMUSSEN KEITH J

Today's prediction

77.0

Speed fig

55.3%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Last Speed Fig +0.54
  • Today Track Code +0.47
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.41
  • Weight Change From Last +0.29
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.24

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.11
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.32
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.29
  • Class Par Trend -0.22
  • Trainer Meet Win Rate -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-08 CD 7f Dirt 2 3.8 82 86 Chsd 2p;edged plc late
2026-04-19 OP 6f Dirt 1 1.8 67 83 Rail-3p;traffic3/16;up
2026-04-10 OP 1m Dirt 5 3.8 64 82 3-2p; finished evenly
2026-03-26 OP 6f Dirt 6 12.3 67 88 Cued 2p5/16; no factor
2026-03-08 OP 6f Dirt 4 9.3 75 92 Unhurried 2p; 1paced
2026-02-27 OP 6f Dirt 7 20.0 54 84 Trailed throughout; 4p
2026-02-14 OP 6f Dirt 5 8.8 79 88 2p turn;no final bid
2025-11-19 CD 6f Dirt 1 1.5 83 83 3pbtw;ran on;edge past
2025-11-02 CD 1m Dirt 2 3.3 76 81 Bmpd btw;ins;edged plc
2025-09-12 BAQ 7f Dirt 4 3.3 80 85 Chased ins; mild bid