John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 5

COLD CASE

F '23 · TIZ THE LAW × BRIE'S SNOWFLAKE

Trainer: WILLIAMS MATT · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

75.6

Speed fig

48.5%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Field Avg Quirin +0.34
  • Today Track Code +0.27
  • Last Finish Pos +0.24
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.23
  • Last Speed Fig +0.22

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.05
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.74
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.60
  • Distance Change From Last -0.47
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.32

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 OP 6f Dirt 1 0.1 79 74 4-5p; rallied late; up
2026-03-20 OP 1.06m Dirt 6 7.5 65 74 Ins; cued3/8; no close
2026-02-08 OP 1.06m Dirt 7 13.0 66 81 Twn2p;bump3/16;yielded
2026-01-04 OP 1m Dirt 4 6.3 79 81 2nd flight;lackd punch
2025-12-12 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 8.3 70 81 4w7/8;1/4;no kick
2025-10-31 RP 6.5f Dirt 2 0.5 69 73 Rallied; 3w; gaining;
2025-09-28 RP 6.5f Dirt 3 10.5 67 74 Rallied; 5w; outfinish
2025-08-24 ELP 5.5f Turf 7 6.8 65 77 2p;btw;4p1/4;no threat
2025-07-03 ELP 5.5f Dirt 6 3.3 67 79 Brush gate;stdy 5/8;4p