John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 4

TOUGH CATCH

C '22 · COMPLEXITY × TRY TO CATCH HER

Trainer: STEWART DALLAS · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

89.4

Speed fig

60.3%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.91
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +2.03
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.01
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.02
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.93

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.32
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.31
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.16
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.16
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-11 OP 6f Dirt 6 6.0 90 100 Ins;cued3/8;faded lane
2026-03-14 OP 6f Dirt 2 2.0 91 100 3w bid;no mtch;held2nd
2026-02-15 OP 6f Dirt 1 2.5 94 4p upr;drft6p1/8;clear
2025-11-24 MVR 6f Dirt 2 1.8 96 94 Chase btwn4-3p; ran on
2025-10-22 KEE 6f Dirt 4 1.0 92 96 Bump;2w btw;lack punch
2025-01-18 FG 1.06m Dirt 13 24.0 60 97 3p;5pbtw upr;brsh/wknd
2024-12-21 FG 6f Dirt 1 1.0 90 93 Prompt 2w;cleared;held
2024-11-30 CD 6.5f Dirt 2 5.3 87 89 Stdy;2p;btw;ang;2d bst
2024-10-26 KEE 6f Dirt 2 0.5 92 91 Ins;altered out1/8;bid
2024-09-02 SAR 7f Dirt 8 19.3 71 97 Bmp brk;4-5p trn;6p1/4