Thu, Apr 30
Race 8
Alw 50000s
Post: 4:40 · 7f · Dirt · $83K purse · 28 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
28 runnersHot pace
12 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 MADELINE'S PROMISE (E, QSP 8)
- #7 MADELINE'S PROMISE (E, QSP 8)
- #7 MADELINE'S PROMISE (E, QSP 8)
- #7 MADELINE'S PROMISE (E, QSP 8)
- #6 JENSCO (E, QSP 5)
- #6 JENSCO (E, QSP 5)
- #6 JENSCO (E, QSP 5)
- #6 JENSCO (E, QSP 5)
- #2 OUR SHENANIGAN (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 OUR SHENANIGAN (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 OUR SHENANIGAN (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 OUR SHENANIGAN (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 6
B Contenders
6, 6, 2
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | BEJENSCO | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 83.7 | 5% | 15% | ▼-76% |
| 6 | BEJENSCO | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 83.7 | 5% | 15% | ▼-76% |
| 6 | BEJENSCO | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 83.7 | 5% | 15% | ▼-76% |
| 6 | BEJENSCO | 1.8-1 | 1.5-1 | 83.1 | 5% | 14% | ▼-77% |
| 2 | BEPOUR SHENANIGAN | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 83.2 | 5% | 14% | ▼-50% |
| 2 | BEPOUR SHENANIGAN | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 83.2 | 5% | 14% | ▼-50% |
| 2 | BEPOUR SHENANIGAN | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 83.2 | 5% | 14% | ▼-50% |
| 2 | BEPOUR SHENANIGAN | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 83.8 | 5% | 14% | ▼-50% |
| 1 | PANGEL BELLA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 81.2 | 4% | 13% | ▼-60% |
| 1 | PANGEL BELLA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 81.2 | 4% | 13% | ▼-60% |
| 1 | PANGEL BELLA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 81.2 | 4% | 13% | ▼-60% |
| 1 | PANGEL BELLA | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 81.3 | 4% | 11% | ▼-61% |
| 3 | PLATE TO THE GAME | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 81.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-18% |
| 3 | PLATE TO THE GAME | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 81.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-18% |
| 3 | PLATE TO THE GAME | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 81.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-18% |
| 3 | PLATE TO THE GAME | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 81.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-18% |
| 5 | STEARIN'UP MY HEART | 15-1 | 18-1 | 78.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | STEARIN'UP MY HEART | 15-1 | 18-1 | 78.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | STEARIN'UP MY HEART | 15-1 | 18-1 | 78.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | STEARIN'UP MY HEART | 15-1 | 18-1 | 78.1 | 3% | 9% | ▼-7% |
| 4 | SASHES AND DIAMONDS | 20-1 | 28-1 | 78.0 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 4 | SASHES AND DIAMONDS | 20-1 | 28-1 | 78.0 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 4 | SASHES AND DIAMONDS | 20-1 | 28-1 | 78.0 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 4 | SASHES AND DIAMONDS | 20-1 | 28-1 | 78.0 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 7 | EMADELINE'S PROMISE | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 73.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
| 7 | EMADELINE'S PROMISE | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 73.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
| 7 | EMADELINE'S PROMISE | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 73.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
| 7 | EMADELINE'S PROMISE | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 73.4 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.