John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 3

LATE TO THE GAME

M '21 · COMPETITIVE EDGE × A P MINK

Trainer: MEDINA ROBERT · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

81.2

Speed fig

10.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.45
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.48
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.42
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.25
  • Today Field Size +0.21

Pushing prediction down

  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.27
  • Distance Change From Last -0.18
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.16
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean -0.11
  • Last Finish Pos -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-26 TP 6f Dirt 7 6.0 78 88 Close up; needed more
2026-02-28 TP 6f Dirt 3 2.8 84 88 3p;outkckd 3/16;ran on
2026-01-17 TP 6f Dirt 3 3.0 84 91 Ins pair 1/4;held show
2025-12-20 TP 6f Dirt 1 2.3 84 81 Brk thru gate;4p;clear
2025-11-21 CD 7f Dirt 6 13.0 70 83 Bpd btw/steady st;5-8p
2025-10-17 KEE 6f Dirt 6 8.8 67 88 Jostled btw/stdy st;4p
2025-09-15 IND 6f Dirt 5 2.0 80 86 Rallied inside3/16
2025-02-28 OP 1.06m Dirt 91 Early traffc;stop;easd
2025-01-19 OP 6f Dirt 1 0.1 76 84 4w move;clear;lasted
2024-12-22 OP 6f Dirt 4 4.0 73 84 Off slw;improvd widest