Thu, Apr 30
Race 7
Md Sp Wt
Post: 4:03 · 1.06m · Turf · $120K purse · 60 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
60 runnersHot pace
20 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #9 WING QUEEN (EP, QSP 8)
- #9 WING QUEEN (EP, QSP 8)
- #9 WING QUEEN (EP, QSP 8)
- #9 WING QUEEN (EP, QSP 8)
- #15 MASS (E, QSP 5)
- #15 MASS (E, QSP 5)
- #15 MASS (E, QSP 5)
- #15 MASS (E, QSP 5)
- #6 TWINKLEE (E, QSP 5)
- #6 TWINKLEE (E, QSP 5)
- #6 TWINKLEE (E, QSP 5)
- #6 TWINKLEE (E, QSP 5)
- #3 STRADA DEL SOGNO (E, QSP 5)
- #3 STRADA DEL SOGNO (E, QSP 5)
- #3 STRADA DEL SOGNO (E, QSP 5)
- #3 STRADA DEL SOGNO (E, QSP 5)
- #13 PRIVATE PROPERTY (EP, QSP 3)
- #13 PRIVATE PROPERTY (EP, QSP 3)
- #13 PRIVATE PROPERTY (EP, QSP 3)
- #13 PRIVATE PROPERTY (EP, QSP 3)
24 of 60 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 1
B Contenders
1, 1, 5
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BPHONFLEUR | 1.8-1 | 1.5-1 | 82.6 | 3% | 10% | ▼-81% |
| 1 | BPHONFLEUR | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 82.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-81% |
| 1 | BPHONFLEUR | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 82.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-81% |
| 1 | BPHONFLEUR | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 82.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-81% |
| 5 | BSHEAVENLY MELODY | 4.5-1 | 4.2-1 | 78.4 | 3% | 8% | ▼-39% |
| 5 | BSHEAVENLY MELODY | 4.5-1 | 4.2-1 | 78.4 | 3% | 8% | ▼-39% |
| 5 | BSHEAVENLY MELODY | 4.5-1 | 4.2-1 | 78.4 | 3% | 8% | ▼-39% |
| 13 | EPPRIVATE PROPERTY | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 79.4 | 2% | 7% | ▼-49% |
| 13 | EPPRIVATE PROPERTY | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 79.4 | 2% | 7% | ▼-49% |
| 13 | EPPRIVATE PROPERTY | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 79.4 | 2% | 7% | ▼-49% |
| 13 | EPPRIVATE PROPERTY | 3.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 79.1 | 2% | 7% | ▼-49% |
| 5 | BSHEAVENLY MELODY | 4.5-1 | 4.4-1 | 78.3 | 2% | 7% | ▼-39% |
| 11 | PCYNICAL HUMOR | 15-1 | 17-1 | 77.9 | 2% | 6% | ▼-10% |
| 11 | PCYNICAL HUMOR | 15-1 | 17-1 | 77.9 | 2% | 6% | ▼-10% |
| 11 | PCYNICAL HUMOR | 15-1 | 17-1 | 77.9 | 2% | 6% | ▼-10% |
| 7 | SVOW TO RESILIENCY | 6.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 79.6 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 7 | SVOW TO RESILIENCY | 6.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 79.6 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 7 | SVOW TO RESILIENCY | 6.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 79.6 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 7 | SVOW TO RESILIENCY | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | 79.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 15 | EMASS | 20-1 | 27-1 | 75.2 | 2% | 6% | ▼-6% |
| 15 | EMASS | 20-1 | 27-1 | 75.2 | 2% | 6% | ▼-6% |
| 15 | EMASS | 20-1 | 27-1 | 75.2 | 2% | 6% | ▼-6% |
| 11 | PCYNICAL HUMOR | 15-1 | 20-1 | 77.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-10% |
| 15 | EMASS | 20-1 | 28-1 | 75.0 | 2% | 6% | ▼-6% |
| 4 | CAPE SOUNION | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 77.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-58% |
| 4 | CAPE SOUNION | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 76.8 | 2% | 6% | ▼-58% |
| 4 | CAPE SOUNION | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 76.8 | 2% | 6% | ▼-58% |
| 4 | CAPE SOUNION | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 76.8 | 2% | 6% | ▼-58% |
| 14 | NOT THAT SIMPLE | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 76.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-31% |
| 14 | NOT THAT SIMPLE | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 76.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-31% |
| 14 | NOT THAT SIMPLE | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 76.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-31% |
| 14 | NOT THAT SIMPLE | 6.0-1 | 7.3-1 | 76.6 | 2% | 5% | ▼-31% |
| 9 | EPWING QUEEN | 20-1 | 30-1 | 75.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 9 | EPWING QUEEN | 20-1 | 30-1 | 75.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 9 | EPWING QUEEN | 20-1 | 30-1 | 75.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 9 | EPWING QUEEN | 20-1 | 30-1 | 75.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 6 | ETWINKLEE | 15-1 | 25-1 | 71.9 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | ETWINKLEE | 15-1 | 27-1 | 71.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | ETWINKLEE | 15-1 | 27-1 | 71.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | ETWINKLEE | 15-1 | 27-1 | 71.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | PERRYLU | 20-1 | 35-1 | 69.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-9% |
| 2 | PERRYLU | 20-1 | 33-1 | 69.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-9% |
| 2 | PERRYLU | 20-1 | 33-1 | 69.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-9% |
| 2 | PERRYLU | 20-1 | 33-1 | 69.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-9% |
| 10 | BOURBIANA | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 69.4 | 1% | 3% | ▼-25% |
| 10 | BOURBIANA | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 69.4 | 1% | 3% | ▼-25% |
| 10 | BOURBIANA | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 69.4 | 1% | 3% | ▼-25% |
| 10 | BOURBIANA | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 69.8 | 1% | 3% | ▼-25% |
| 12 | TREAT YOURSELF | 30-1 | 58-1 | 70.0 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 12 | TREAT YOURSELF | 30-1 | 57-1 | 70.0 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 12 | TREAT YOURSELF | 30-1 | 57-1 | 70.0 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 12 | TREAT YOURSELF | 30-1 | 57-1 | 70.0 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 3 | ESTRADA DEL SOGNO | 20-1 | 47-1 | 68.7 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | ESTRADA DEL SOGNO | 20-1 | 50-1 | 68.7 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | ESTRADA DEL SOGNO | 20-1 | 50-1 | 68.7 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | ESTRADA DEL SOGNO | 20-1 | 50-1 | 68.7 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 8 | SAMMY THE SHARK | 50-1 | 95-1 | 50.1 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
| 8 | SAMMY THE SHARK | 50-1 | 98-1 | 49.2 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
| 8 | SAMMY THE SHARK | 50-1 | 98-1 | 49.2 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
| 8 | SAMMY THE SHARK | 50-1 | 98-1 | 49.2 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.