Sat, May 16
Race 10
Alw 82000n1x
Post: 5:44 · 6f · Turf · $82K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 BURNING BRIDGES (E, QSP 7)
- #1 WIT STORM (EP, QSP 5)
- #10 JOKER ON FIRE (EP, QSP 3)
- #3 JOE WEST (EP, QSP 2)
- #5 I'M DUE (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
5-horse A,B,C box on posts 6, 4, 9, 8, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$60.00
60 combos
Hit prob
8.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$374.37
mean $698.90
Expected ROI
+3.6%
net $2.17
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 5-horse A,B,C box on posts [6, 4, 9, 8, 5] — hits 8.9% of simulated runs
- · At $60 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $374 (mean $699; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
4, 9, 8
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 2.0% | $304.36 | -11% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.5% | $294.22 | -25% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.4% | $307.35 | -28% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.8% | $341.63 | -20% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.6% | $304.36 | -27% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEBURNING BRIDGES | 4.0-1 | 4.2-1 | 81.8 | 15% | 43% | ▼-8% |
| 4 | BPVOODOO DOLL | 8.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 78.5 | 10% | 31% | ·+3% |
| 9 | BPSTORMY BIRTHDAY | 6.0-1 | 9.0-1 | 78.2 | 10% | 29% | ▼-7% |
| 8 | BSTOUGH CRITIC | 8.0-1 | 7.9-1 | 76.2 | 10% | 29% | ·+1% |
| 7 | SSUNDAY BOY | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 78.9 | 9% | 27% | ·-2% |
| 11 | SLOVE COIN | 2.0-1 | 2.5-1 | 76.4 | 9% | 27% | ▼-58% |
| 10 | EPJOKER ON FIRE | 5.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 76.5 | 9% | 27% | ▼-16% |
| 2 | SLAWYER MASON | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 77.7 | 9% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 1 | EPWIT STORM | 3.5-1 | 4.4-1 | 77.7 | 8% | 25% | ▼-32% |
| 5 | CEPI'M DUE | 20-1 | 33-1 | 75.1 | 7% | 21% | ▲+9% |
| 3 | EPJOE WEST | 15-1 | 24-1 | 72.4 | 5% | 16% | ·-0% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.