Sat, May 16
Race 11
Md Sp Wt
Post: 6:16 · 1.06m · Turf · $80K purse · 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #11 TWIRLING LAD (E, QSP 8)
- #13 POPPY'S TICKET (EP, QSP 7)
- #4 QBITS (E, QSP 6)
3 of 13 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 8, 5, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$322.20
mean $400.58
Expected ROI
-37.5%
net $-2.25
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 8, 5, 9] — hits 0.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $322 (mean $401; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 8
B Contenders
5, 9, 10
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 0.9% | $322.20 | -49% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.0% | $307.61 | -28% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.9% | $299.27 | -48% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 3.7% | $322.20 | -40% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 3.9% | $275.13 | -47% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEMOTIONLYAVAILBLE | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 72.0 | 11% | 32% | ·-4% |
| 8 | ASSLEEP WALKING | 2.5-1 | 2.6-1 | 71.0 | 10% | 30% | ▼-43% |
| 5 | BSNOWUCME NOWUDONT | 8.0-1 | 9.5-1 | 72.6 | 10% | 30% | ·+2% |
| 9 | BPNAGUILE | 8.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 72.9 | 10% | 30% | ·+2% |
| 10 | BSOHONTE'S OWN | 6.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 72.0 | 10% | 30% | ▼-6% |
| 12 | BARGAIN PURCHASE | 1.8-1 | 2.0-1 | 70.3 | 10% | 28% | ▼-63% |
| 11 | ETWIRLING LAD | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 71.1 | 9% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 1 | START THE DAY | 15-1 | 30-1 | 70.5 | 6% | 18% | ·+2% |
| 4 | EQBITS | 12-1 | 17-1 | 64.1 | 6% | 17% | ·-2% |
| 13 | EPPOPPY'S TICKET | 3.0-1 | 5.0-1 | 65.5 | 5% | 16% | ▼-48% |
| 3 | PLEAVE ME | 6.0-1 | 7.3-1 | 66.1 | 5% | 16% | ▼-21% |
| 2 | PRONS LEGACY | 12-1 | 24-1 | 65.4 | 5% | 15% | ·-4% |
| 7 | SUNCLE BARRIE | 50-1 | 93-1 | 63.8 | 3% | 10% | ▲+5% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 11 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.