Sat, May 16
Race 9
OClm 45000n2x
Post: 5:16 · 1m · Dirt · $83K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 CONCORDE SPIRIT (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 SHADOW DRAGON (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 CICCIOBELLO (E, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 4, 8, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$64.25
mean $71.04
Expected ROI
-61.6%
net $-3.70
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 4, 8, 7] — hits 3.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $64 (mean $71; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 4
B Contenders
8, 7, 5
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.3% | $53.15 | -69% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.0% | $64.25 | -65% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.2% | $61.71 | -65% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 9.3% | $74.24 | -58% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 11.2% | $72.81 | -65% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ASLOTSA TROUBLE | 4.5-1 | 5.0-1 | 83.5 | 17% | 48% | ·+1% |
| 4 | AEPCONCORDE SPIRIT | 3.5-1 | 4.0-1 | 82.1 | 16% | 46% | ▼-11% |
| 8 | BEPSHADOW DRAGON | 4.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 82.5 | 12% | 37% | ▼-14% |
| 7 | BPTHREE B'S | 5.0-1 | 7.9-1 | 82.8 | 12% | 37% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | BSEZ ROLL | 4.5-1 | 5.5-1 | 80.0 | 12% | 36% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | CSBERNING BEAUTY | 12-1 | 14-1 | 78.5 | 11% | 34% | ▲+14% |
| 1 | ECICCIOBELLO | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 79.9 | 11% | 34% | ·-3% |
| 2 | SLEFTEMBEHIND | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 78.4 | 9% | 29% | ·+0% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.