Sun, May 3
Race 6
OClm 80000b
Post: 3:44 · 6f · Dirt · $90K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersSpeed duel
6 early types and no pressers or closers in the field — expect a fast, attritional pace where the fittest E/EP survives. No style edge.
Projected speed
- #6 VIBRANT EXPRESS (EP, QSP 7)
- #3 FIRE PIT (E, QSP 7)
- #5 LIGHT MAN (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 WHAT'S UP BRO (E, QSP 6)
- #4 SACROSANCT (EP, QSP 3)
- #1 GUNMETAL (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 6, 1, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$8.97
mean $14.93
Expected ROI
-72.9%
net $-4.38
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 6, 1, 5] — hits 10.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $9 (mean $15; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
6, 1, 5
C Value-edge longshots
2, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 11.1% | $6.79 | -87% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 17.3% | $8.97 | -64% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 17.0% | $17.73 | -66% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 20.5% | $8.97 | -76% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 23.7% | $17.73 | -56% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPSACROSANCT | 3.0-1 | 2.3-1 | 91.6 | 24% | 65% | ·+1% |
| 6 | BEPVIBRANT EXPRESS | 2.5-1 | 1.9-1 | 89.3 | 20% | 59% | ▼-14% |
| 1 | BEPGUNMETAL | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1 | 88.5 | 18% | 54% | ▼-46% |
| 5 | BEPLIGHT MAN | 4.5-1 | 5.8-1 | 88.3 | 17% | 52% | ▲+5% |
| 3 | CEFIRE PIT | 10-1 | 12-1 | 83.7 | 11% | 36% | ▲+13% |
| 2 | CEWHAT'S UP BRO | 20-1 | 30-1 | 85.7 | 10% | 35% | ▲+23% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.