Sun, May 3
Race 5
Md 50000
Post: 3:13 · 6f · Turf · $48K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersUnprojectable
8 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #9 MY LIL ARMY GIRL (E, QSP 5)
8 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 5, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
9.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$27.70
mean $30.41
Expected ROI
-50.8%
net $-3.05
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 5, 9] — hits 9.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $28 (mean $30; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
5, 9, 2
C Value-edge longshots
7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.6% | $34.30 | -61% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 8.2% | $34.30 | -55% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.6% | $34.30 | -50% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.0% | $34.30 | -57% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 12.9% | $41.35 | -46% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | APLUPINE | 2.5-1 | 1.6-1 | 75.9 | 25% | 63% | ▼-10% |
| 5 | BPFIVE DOZEN ROSES | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 72.0 | 18% | 52% | ▲+5% |
| 9 | BEMY LIL ARMY GIRL | 6.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 73.3 | 17% | 50% | ▲+13% |
| 2 | BRED SPIRITS | 10-1 | 11-1 | 71.5 | 8% | 27% | ·+4% |
| 7 | CSTELLA FORTUNA | 20-1 | 51-1 | 70.3 | 7% | 22% | ▲+10% |
| 11 | DREAMY GIRL | 15-1 | 25-1 | 70.1 | 6% | 22% | ▲+6% |
| 13 | SHIP HOP DANCER | 12-1 | 18-1 | 63.6 | 5% | 18% | ·-1% |
| 1 | FIND YOUR PATH | 5.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 65.0 | 5% | 18% | ▼-24% |
| 12 | HANNA'S HIDEAWAY | 15-1 | 27-1 | 64.6 | 3% | 11% | ▼-5% |
| 3 | MIDNIGHT BLUE | 50-1 | 73-1 | 57.4 | 2% | 7% | ·+2% |
| 10 | BUSTLING TOWN | 10-1 | 16-1 | 54.6 | 2% | 5% | ▼-18% |
| 4 | GRESHAM'S LAW | 20-1 | 38-1 | 50.2 | 1% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 8 | SCREBOILING POINT | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCRSI REST MY CASE | 2.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCREPMY GIRL AUBREE | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.