Sat, Jun 6
Race 10
WStphn-G1
Post: 4:52 · 7f · Dirt · $500K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 SOLITUDE DUDE (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 OBLITERATION (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 ENGLISHMAN (E, QSP 5)
- #8 CIVIL LIBERTY (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 STRADALE (EP, QSP 4)
- #3 SIX SPEED (E, QSP 1)
- #9 TAJ MAHAL (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 5, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$100.42
mean $101.69
Expected ROI
-41.6%
net $-2.50
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 5, 1] — hits 3.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $100 (mean $102; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
5, 1, 8
C Value-edge longshots
9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.2% | $99.88 | -47% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 4.4% | $106.45 | -44% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.9% | $106.45 | -37% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 10.7% | $129.05 | -28% |
| 5-horse A,B,C box | $60.00 | 21.1% | $143.53 | -14% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | APCRUDE VELOCITY | 1.8-1 | 1.2-1 | 97.7 | 18% | 50% | ▼-41% |
| 5 | BEPSOLITUDE DUDE | 6.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 95.9 | 16% | 45% | ▲+8% |
| 1 | BPGILDED BANDIT | 8.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 92.7 | 12% | 37% | ▲+9% |
| 8 | BEPCIVIL LIBERTY | 10-1 | 9.3-1 | 91.8 | 11% | 32% | ▲+9% |
| 7 | EENGLISHMAN | 3.0-1 | 2.4-1 | 91.4 | 10% | 32% | ▼-32% |
| 9 | CEPTAJ MAHAL | 15-1 | 13-1 | 93.2 | 9% | 29% | ▲+13% |
| 3 | ESIX SPEED | 10-1 | 9.2-1 | 92.9 | 8% | 27% | ·+3% |
| 2 | EPOBLITERATION | 8.0-1 | 8.9-1 | 91.8 | 8% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 4 | EPSTRADALE | 15-1 | 14-1 | 90.9 | 7% | 22% | ▲+6% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.