Sat, Jun 6
Race 8
TruNrth-G3
Post: 3:25 · 6.5f · Dirt · $400K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #3 BENTORNATO (EP, QSP 7)
- #5 FAUST (EP, QSP 7)
- #4 LISTENUPSHANCE (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 BOOK'EM DANNO (EP, QSP 4)
- #8 ILLUMINARE (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
TightHighest hit-rate tier — best chance to cash a small ticket. Still negative-EV after takeout, but the model has a read.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 3, 2, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
19.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$8.91
mean $13.34
Expected ROI
-57.8%
net $-3.47
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 3, 2, 8] — hits 19.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $9 (mean $13; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Top 4 cover the ITM math — chalk should hit; payouts likely small.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
3, 2, 8
C Value-edge longshots
5, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 33.1% | $7.00 | -61% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 26.7% | $8.91 | -51% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 26.1% | $8.91 | -52% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 35.2% | $7.00 | -64% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 31.7% | $8.91 | -47% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEPBOOK'EM DANNO | 2.0-1 | 1.7-1 | 98.0 | 32% | 80% | ·-5% |
| 3 | BEPBENTORNATO | 1.6-1 | 1.2-1 | 95.8 | 26% | 74% | ▼-24% |
| 2 | BPIMAGINATION | 4.0-1 | 3.7-1 | 99.6 | 22% | 68% | ▲+17% |
| 8 | BEPILLUMINARE | 10-1 | 11-1 | 90.9 | 8% | 29% | ▲+6% |
| 5 | CEPFAUST | 15-1 | 18-1 | 88.5 | 8% | 29% | ▲+13% |
| 4 | CEPLISTENUPSHANCE | 30-1 | 43-1 | 86.7 | 5% | 19% | ▲+11% |
| 1 | SCREACOUSTIC AVE | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCRPBE YOU | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCRSPENTATHLON | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.