Sat, Jun 6
Race 6
Alw 120000n1x
Post: 2:09 · 6.5f · Dirt · $120K purse · 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #4 YO BANANA BOY (E, QSP 7)
- #2 VILLAGE PERSON (EP, QSP 6)
- #10 IMAGINE JOHN (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 BUTTAH (EP, QSP 3)
- #9 MARY'S LAD (EP, QSP 3)
- #6 CALDO CANDY (EP, QSP 2)
- #11 BRAZENLY (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 5, 8, 14, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$35.26
mean $53.52
Expected ROI
-71.4%
net $-4.28
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [5, 8, 14, 6] — hits 3.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $35 (mean $54; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
8, 14, 6
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.8% | $35.62 | -75% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 4.1% | $55.65 | -69% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.2% | $55.65 | -65% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.0% | $47.38 | -69% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 7.3% | $87.17 | -62% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | APLOCAL KNOWLEDGE | 2.5-1 | 1.6-1 | 89.3 | 18% | 50% | ▼-23% |
| 8 | BSSEA STRIKE | 4.0-1 | 3.1-1 | 86.0 | 15% | 42% | ▼-9% |
| 14 | BPGUN RANGE | 8.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 88.3 | 14% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 6 | BEPCALDO CANDY | 10-1 | 11-1 | 84.6 | 10% | 31% | ▲+7% |
| 3 | EPBUTTAH | 15-1 | 19-1 | 84.3 | 7% | 24% | ▲+8% |
| 2 | CEPVILLAGE PERSON | 20-1 | 17-1 | 84.8 | 7% | 23% | ▲+11% |
| 11 | EPBRAZENLY | 15-1 | 19-1 | 84.0 | 6% | 21% | ·+5% |
| 9 | EPMARY'S LAD | 15-1 | 14-1 | 82.7 | 6% | 20% | ·+4% |
| 12 | PTRUST FUND | 30-1 | 32-1 | 83.3 | 5% | 16% | ▲+8% |
| 7 | PBRIGHTLINE BULLET | 10-1 | 7.6-1 | 77.4 | 4% | 15% | ▼-9% |
| 4 | EYO BANANA BOY | 20-1 | 24-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 10% | ·-2% |
| 10 | EPIMAGINE JOHN | 30-1 | 37-1 | 75.1 | 2% | 7% | ·-1% |
| 13 | PSTRATEGICOPERATION | 50-1 | 51-1 | 71.0 | 1% | 4% | ·-1% |
| 1 | SCREPPLAYA DEL MAR | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.