Sat, Jun 6
Race 11
MtropltH-G1
Post: 5:32 · 1m · Dirt · $1.00M purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 RATED BY MERIT (E, QSP 8)
- #6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE (EP, QSP 7)
- #4 SAUDI CROWN (E, QSP 7)
- #2 VIBE (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 JOURNALISM (EP, QSP 4)
- #3 ANTIQUARIAN (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 6, 7, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
8.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$16.01
mean $26.31
Expected ROI
-62.7%
net $-3.76
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 6, 7, 4] — hits 8.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $16 (mean $26; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
6, 7, 4
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 10.4% | $16.35 | -69% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 11.2% | $31.63 | -60% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.2% | $22.80 | -57% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 14.0% | $31.63 | -62% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 20.3% | $35.35 | -58% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APNYSOS | 1.8-1 | 1.5-1 | 101.2 | 24% | 64% | ▼-27% |
| 6 | BEPKNIGHTSBRIDGE | 3.5-1 | 3.6-1 | 101.4 | 20% | 57% | ·+0% |
| 7 | BEPJOURNALISM | 2.5-1 | 2.5-1 | 102.4 | 17% | 51% | ▼-22% |
| 4 | BESAUDI CROWN | 8.0-1 | 9.0-1 | 96.3 | 13% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | EPANTIQUARIAN | 6.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 97.0 | 11% | 36% | ·-1% |
| 5 | CERATED BY MERIT | 10-1 | 10-1 | 96.4 | 10% | 34% | ▲+10% |
| 2 | EPVIBE | 15-1 | 12-1 | 93.5 | 6% | 19% | ·+3% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 11 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.