Sat, May 16
Race 3
Md Sp Wt
Post: 11:41 · 1m · Turf · $52K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 MASTER SOMMELIER (E, QSP 7)
- #1 LIMO (E, QSP 6)
- #2 MARGIE'S LAST (E, QSP 5)
- #8 ZENCAT (E, QSP 3)
4 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd on posts 6, 4, 1, 3, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$9.00
9 combos
Hit prob
9.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$72.74
mean $94.54
Expected ROI
+4.4%
net $0.40
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd on posts [6, 4, 1, 3, 2] — hits 9.9% of simulated runs
- · At $9 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $73 (mean $95; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
4, 1, 3
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 8.5% | $72.74 | +6% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.8% | $84.50 | -2% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.4% | $72.74 | -8% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.0% | $72.74 | -7% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.6% | $84.50 | -18% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ASMUNNY PROBLEM | 4.5-1 | 3.9-1 | 76.8 | 22% | 59% | ▲+13% |
| 4 | BEMASTER SOMMELIER | 4.0-1 | 4.6-1 | 80.4 | 19% | 54% | ·+3% |
| 1 | BELIMO | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 77.9 | 17% | 51% | ▼-22% |
| 3 | BSNAABAAHII | 3.5-1 | 2.6-1 | 77.2 | 16% | 48% | ▼-9% |
| 5 | SCANNER | 5.0-1 | 5.8-1 | 73.1 | 7% | 24% | ▼-19% |
| 2 | CEMARGIE'S LAST | 30-1 | 39-1 | 72.2 | 6% | 21% | ▲+13% |
| 8 | EZENCAT | 30-1 | 52-1 | 68.4 | 4% | 13% | ·+5% |
| 9 | OCEAN SOUND | 30-1 | 53-1 | 70.9 | 4% | 12% | ·+4% |
| 7 | PPENDAR | 30-1 | 51-1 | 67.5 | 3% | 9% | ·+1% |
| 11 | CHATBOT | 30-1 | 52-1 | 61.1 | 1% | 5% | ·-3% |
| 10 | DRIVE BY JOHNNY | 12-1 | 13-1 | 50.6 | 1% | 4% | ▼-16% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.