Sat, May 16
Race 11
Galorett-G3
Post: 4:53 · 1.06m · Turf · $150K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 AUSTERE (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 RIBALTAGAIA (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 7, 5, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$106.11
mean $111.21
Expected ROI
-27.8%
net $-1.67
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [7, 5, 8] — hits 3.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $106 (mean $111; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7, 5
B Contenders
8, 3, 2
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.6% | $61.02 | -46% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.9% | $123.11 | -37% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.2% | $100.33 | -41% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 9.3% | $125.41 | -34% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 12.1% | $123.11 | -29% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ASCHILD OF THE MOON | 2.5-1 | 2.6-1 | ↑3.5-1 | 89.8 | 16% | 47% | ▼-10% |
| 5 | AEPAUSTERE | 3.5-1 | 3.9-1 | ↑7.0-1 | 89.8 | 16% | 46% | ▲+14% |
| 8 | BPAWESOME CZECH | 5.0-1 | 5.9-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 87.5 | 15% | 43% | ▼-30% |
| 3 | BPACCENT | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | ·3.5-1 | 86.1 | 12% | 38% | ▼-19% |
| 2 | BEPRIBALTAGAIA | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | ·7.0-1 | 87.0 | 11% | 34% | ·+2% |
| 4 | SWARMING | 12-1 | 17-1 | ↓9.0-1 | 86.9 | 11% | 33% | ▲+7% |
| 1 | SMAHRA'S LOVE | 15-1 | 17-1 | ↓7.0-1 | 84.6 | 10% | 31% | ·-1% |
| 6 | SCHEETAH LADY | 12-1 | 15-1 | ·11-1 | 85.4 | 9% | 29% | ▲+8% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 11 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.