Sat, May 16
Race 12
TurfSprntL125k
Post: 5:52 · 5.5f · Turf · $125K purse · 10 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 10 of 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #3 JEAN VALJEAN (EP, QSP 7)
- #2 DETERMINED KINGDOM (EP, QSP 7)
- #10 FORE HARP (EP, QSP 4)
- #9 CARD TRICK (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 8, 11
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$293.58
mean $296.79
Expected ROI
+17.4%
net $1.05
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 8, 11] — hits 2.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $294 (mean $297; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 8
B Contenders
11, 3, 4
C Value-edge longshots
10, 5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.2% | $143.92 | -41% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.5% | $143.92 | -38% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.4% | $107.94 | -56% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 8.9% | $143.92 | -40% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.2% | $123.13 | -53% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASRUN CURTIS RUN | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | ·4.5-1 | 90.6 | 14% | 40% | ▼-7% |
| 8 | APOUTLAW KID | 5.0-1 | 4.8-1 | ·5.0-1 | 88.9 | 14% | 40% | ·-3% |
| 11 | BPHAD TO HAVE HIM | 8.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ·7.0-1 | 88.3 | 13% | 39% | ▲+7% |
| 3 | BEPJEAN VALJEAN | 5.0-1 | 5.0-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 89.9 | 13% | 37% | ▼-35% |
| 4 | BSCHASING LIBERTY | 3.0-1 | 2.7-1 | ·2.5-1 | 88.8 | 12% | 37% | ▼-36% |
| 2 | EPDETERMINED KINGDOM | 6.0-1 | 6.2-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 88.6 | 9% | 28% | ·-0% |
| 10 | CEPFORE HARP | 15-1 | 16-1 | ↑22-1 | 86.7 | 8% | 25% | ▲+13% |
| 9 | EPCARD TRICK | 30-1 | 41-1 | ↓15-1 | 82.6 | 7% | 21% | ▲+5% |
| 5 | CSINCINERATOR | 30-1 | 38-1 | ·34-1 | 84.1 | 6% | 19% | ▲+12% |
| 6 | STIDEWATER | 30-1 | 47-1 | ↑42-1 | 81.6 | 5% | 15% | ▲+9% |
| 7 | SCRPISIVUNGUVUNGU | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 12 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.