John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 5

SMOKEY MANDATE

G '20 · STRONG MANDATE × EVEN FOREST

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: TORRES JAIME A

Today's prediction

90.7

Speed fig

31.0%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.89
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.81
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.38
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.97
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.85

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.19
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.11
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 -0.09
  • Today Field Size -0.09
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.08

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-16 KEE 1.06m Turf 3 0.3 93 In hand ins;caught lat
2026-03-11 TP 1m Dirt 7 11.5 82 96 Track 3p;5p upr;faded
2026-02-14 TP 1.06m Dirt 5 14.3 81 93 4-3p;chased;gave way
2025-12-26 TP 1.06m Dirt 3 1.0 89 96 Stalk 3w;ran on;outkck
2025-11-09 CD 1m Turf 5 4.0 93 Ins;duel upr;faded btw
2025-04-08 KEE 1.06m Turf 2 0.5 95 Ins;aim 2w;fended off
2025-03-22 FG 1.13m Turf 11 8.5 82 97 4p; 5-7p2nd; tired
2025-02-22 FG 1.06m Turf 1 1.3 92 90 3p;5-6p1/4;cleard;held
2024-12-26 FG 1.04m Dirt 9 9.8 75 90 Chck 1st;4-2p;no factr
2024-11-28 FG 1.06m Turf 2 2.8 87 90 3-5w far turn;rallied