Sat, May 16
Race 6
Clm 10000
Post: 3:47 · 1m · Dirt · $28K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 SCREAMING UNCLE (E, QSP 6)
- #7 LAUGHING BOY (E, QSP 6)
- #1 HIGH TIDE (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 BREW PUB (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 BRAVE BEAR (EP, QSP 5)
- #10 MYSTIC NIGHT (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 2, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$77.53
mean $82.99
Expected ROI
-62.9%
net $-3.77
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 2, 8] — hits 2.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $78 (mean $83; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
2, 8, 4
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.6% | $53.66 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.0% | $61.39 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.8% | $42.61 | -77% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 7.7% | $66.67 | -72% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 8.9% | $70.71 | -72% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPHIGH TIDE | 3.5-1 | 2.9-1 | 78.2 | 19% | 51% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | BEPBREW PUB | 4.5-1 | 4.9-1 | 80.2 | 13% | 39% | ▼-7% |
| 8 | BESCREAMING UNCLE | 8.0-1 | 8.1-1 | 77.3 | 11% | 32% | ·+4% |
| 4 | BSPROVE WORTHY | 3.0-1 | 3.7-1 | 75.8 | 11% | 32% | ▼-32% |
| 9 | PCENTAVO | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 77.1 | 10% | 32% | ·+4% |
| 6 | STEXAS RED HOT | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 76.9 | 9% | 28% | ▼-8% |
| 7 | ELAUGHING BOY | 12-1 | 14-1 | 73.5 | 8% | 26% | ▲+7% |
| 3 | EPBRAVE BEAR | 10-1 | 9.4-1 | 73.6 | 8% | 24% | ·+1% |
| 5 | SKNOX | 20-1 | 44-1 | 71.8 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 10 | EPMYSTIC NIGHT | 20-1 | 23-1 | 68.6 | 5% | 17% | ·+4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.