Sat, May 16
Race 7
Md 50000
Post: 4:19 · 6f · Turf · $48K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #9 MYKONOS (E, QSP 5)
- #8 UNTIL LAST CALL (E, QSP 5)
- #11 BOOTSY'S A RASCAL (E, QSP 5)
- #2 CALVARY HILL (E, QSP 0)
5 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 12, 3, 9, 10
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$31.16
mean $51.25
Expected ROI
-64.2%
net $-3.85
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [12, 3, 9, 10] — hits 4.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $31 (mean $51; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
12, 3
B Contenders
9, 10, 8
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.5% | $31.16 | -71% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 8.2% | $32.88 | -64% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.3% | $61.64 | -66% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 8.5% | $65.97 | -63% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 14.1% | $35.11 | -62% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | APRICHIES LOVE | 2.0-1 | 1.8-1 | 73.8 | 19% | 52% | ▼-33% |
| 3 | APPEYTON | 2.5-1 | 2.1-1 | 74.7 | 19% | 52% | ▼-21% |
| 9 | BEMYKONOS | 3.0-1 | 3.3-1 | 72.3 | 14% | 41% | ▼-23% |
| 10 | BKEEP 'EM HONEST | 6.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 72.4 | 10% | 30% | ▼-6% |
| 8 | BEUNTIL LAST CALL | 5.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 67.7 | 7% | 23% | ▼-19% |
| 4 | WAR ANTHEM | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 69.8 | 6% | 21% | ▼-8% |
| 1 | EYE ON THE BALL | 10-1 | 11-1 | 64.4 | 6% | 19% | ·-4% |
| 6 | BEAU CHEVAL | 6.0-1 | 9.4-1 | 63.2 | 6% | 18% | ▼-18% |
| 7 | SLOBBYIST | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | 65.1 | 5% | 16% | ▼-12% |
| 11 | EBOOTSY'S A RASCAL | 10-1 | 15-1 | 62.2 | 3% | 12% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | ECALVARY HILL | 12-1 | 20-1 | 58.8 | 3% | 9% | ▼-11% |
| 5 | TONY HOOKS | 20-1 | 57-1 | 57.6 | 2% | 8% | ·-4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.