Sat, May 16
Race 5
Md 20000
Post: 3:15 · 1m · Dirt · $35K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 BIG BROOKLYN (E, QSP 8)
- #2 SOUNDS LIKE FUN (EP, QSP 5)
4 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 8, 2, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$13.96
mean $21.23
Expected ROI
-83.3%
net $-5.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 8, 2, 1] — hits 4.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $14 (mean $21; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3, 8
B Contenders
2, 1, 5
C Value-edge longshots
7, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.3% | $10.11 | -90% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.7% | $20.76 | -78% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.2% | $13.96 | -86% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.0% | $20.76 | -71% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 15.2% | $17.97 | -82% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ASPRIVATE FLIGHT | 2.5-1 | 2.5-1 | 72.8 | 17% | 50% | ▼-23% |
| 8 | ASWISS ARMY KNIFE | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 72.5 | 17% | 49% | ▼-42% |
| 2 | BEPSOUNDS LIKE FUN | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 73.1 | 16% | 47% | ▼-10% |
| 1 | BPISOLA D'ORO | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 70.5 | 13% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | BEBIG BROOKLYN | 12-1 | 17-1 | 70.6 | 10% | 33% | ▲+13% |
| 7 | CBABY MEANIE | 20-1 | 37-1 | 68.9 | 10% | 31% | ▲+18% |
| 4 | STAYFROSTYMYFRIEND | 8.0-1 | 9.6-1 | 65.5 | 8% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 6 | CMAGNUM'S MACROBRST | 15-1 | 25-1 | 66.7 | 7% | 24% | ▲+8% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.