Sat, May 16
Race 3
Clm 20000n2l
Post: 2:12 · 6f · Dirt · $36K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #4 DAT DARES RIGHT (E, QSP 5)
- #1 ELENI (E, QSP 4)
- #5 CHARDONNAY DERBY (EP, QSP 3)
- #3 COMBATANT'S SONG (E, QSP 3)
- #7 MIDNIGHTLOVEAFFAIR (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 8, 5, 7, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$26.34
mean $25.47
Expected ROI
-80.9%
net $-4.85
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [8, 5, 7, 2] — hits 4.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $26 (mean $25; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8
B Contenders
5, 7, 2
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.8% | $19.39 | -83% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 5.9% | $26.34 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.8% | $31.12 | -79% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 8.1% | $26.34 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.8% | $34.84 | -75% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | APWILL OF A WOMANNE | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 71.7 | 21% | 56% | ▼-17% |
| 5 | BEPCHARDONNAY DERBY | 3.5-1 | 3.6-1 | 68.1 | 16% | 46% | ▼-10% |
| 7 | BEPMIDNIGHTLOVEAFFAIR | 4.5-1 | 4.7-1 | 67.4 | 14% | 41% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | BSTHAT'STHEFACTJACK | 5.0-1 | 7.6-1 | 67.1 | 11% | 35% | ▼-8% |
| 1 | EELENI | 6.0-1 | 9.2-1 | 64.9 | 10% | 32% | ·-4% |
| 4 | EDAT DARES RIGHT | 8.0-1 | 14-1 | 65.0 | 10% | 32% | ·+3% |
| 6 | PISHKABIBBLE | 8.0-1 | 14-1 | 65.2 | 10% | 31% | ·+3% |
| 3 | CECOMBATANT'S SONG | 15-1 | 25-1 | 64.5 | 9% | 27% | ▲+11% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.