Sat, May 16
Race 4
OClm 55000n1x
Post: 2:40 · 6f · Turf · $88K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 SADIE EARP (EP, QSP 7)
- #8 BOURBON BETTY (E, QSP 5)
- #9 ROMANTIC DANCER (E, QSP 5)
- #10 SHEER WILL (EP, QSP 4)
- #11 MILA CANDY (EP, QSP 4)
- #6 MADONNA OF LORETO (EP, QSP 1)
1 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 10, 8, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$182.55
mean $183.97
Expected ROI
-38.6%
net $-2.31
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [10, 8, 4] — hits 2.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $183 (mean $184; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
10
B Contenders
8, 4, 9
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.1% | $114.25 | -56% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.1% | $138.91 | -48% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.9% | $126.43 | -56% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.1% | $157.24 | -34% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 7.3% | $140.62 | -49% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | AEPSHEER WILL | 4.0-1 | 3.3-1 | 83.3 | 16% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 8 | BEBOURBON BETTY | 5.0-1 | 4.6-1 | 82.5 | 12% | 36% | ▼-7% |
| 4 | BPSOLOSHOT | 3.0-1 | 3.6-1 | 82.6 | 11% | 32% | ▼-31% |
| 9 | BEROMANTIC DANCER | 1.8-1 | 2.2-1 | 83.1 | 11% | 32% | ▼-59% |
| 5 | PSHORE WAR | 5.0-1 | 5.7-1 | 80.3 | 10% | 31% | ▼-11% |
| 3 | PWILL NOT BE SWAYED | 12-1 | 16-1 | 82.0 | 9% | 27% | ▲+7% |
| 6 | EPMADONNA OF LORETO | 8.0-1 | 7.6-1 | 78.7 | 8% | 25% | ·-4% |
| 1 | EPSADIE EARP | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 76.9 | 7% | 23% | ▼-34% |
| 7 | PSHE'S GOT WILL | 4.5-1 | 5.8-1 | 77.7 | 7% | 21% | ▼-25% |
| 11 | EPMILA CANDY | 8.0-1 | 9.9-1 | 75.3 | 6% | 18% | ▼-10% |
| 2 | COACH ALBERT LADY | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 71.3 | 3% | 9% | ▼-19% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.