Sat, May 16
Race 2
OClm 100000n1x
Post: 1:42 · 6.5f · Dirt · $88K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersSpeed duel
6 early types and no pressers or closers in the field — expect a fast, attritional pace where the fittest E/EP survives. No style edge.
Projected speed
- #4 DIVINE INTENTIONS (E, QSP 8)
- #2 NICHE (E, QSP 7)
- #5 GENA B (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 PRINCE OF BROADWAY (EP, QSP 4)
- #3 GETTING CLOSER (E, QSP 3)
- #1 LAW SCHOOL (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 5, 6, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
9.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$33.77
mean $34.73
Expected ROI
-47.8%
net $-2.87
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 5, 6, 3] — hits 9.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $34 (mean $35; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
5, 6, 3
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 8.5% | $24.71 | -64% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 17.6% | $36.87 | -42% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 15.4% | $33.77 | -53% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 27.0% | $39.71 | -43% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 28.9% | $39.71 | -50% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEDIVINE INTENTIONS | 3.5-1 | 3.6-1 | 85.3 | 27% | 69% | ▲+13% |
| 5 | BEPGENA B | 3.5-1 | 4.3-1 | 79.4 | 16% | 51% | ▼-6% |
| 6 | BEPPRINCE OF BROADWAY | 3.0-1 | 3.0-1 | 78.1 | 15% | 48% | ▼-16% |
| 3 | BEGETTING CLOSER | 4.5-1 | 6.3-1 | 82.1 | 14% | 46% | ·-1% |
| 1 | EPLAW SCHOOL | 4.0-1 | 5.8-1 | 80.8 | 14% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | ENICHE | 4.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 78.5 | 12% | 41% | ▼-10% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.