Sat, May 16
Race 1
Clm 32000
Post: 1:10 · 6f · Dirt · $60K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 NABOKOV (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 GRAYWING (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 FACTUALLY CORRECT (E, QSP 6)
- #5 CLANCY FANCY (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 BIG HAT WILLIE (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 STEWIE (E, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 4, 1, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$33.54
mean $35.18
Expected ROI
-59.8%
net $-3.59
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 1, 2] — hits 6.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $34 (mean $35; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4, 1
B Contenders
2, 3, 5
C Value-edge longshots
7, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 5.4% | $27.75 | -75% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 10.9% | $30.81 | -70% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.3% | $30.81 | -76% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.0% | $32.43 | -72% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 18.8% | $34.07 | -70% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | APBEARY FUNNY | 2.5-1 | 2.7-1 | 85.9 | 18% | 52% | ▼-21% |
| 1 | AEFACTUALLY CORRECT | 4.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 86.9 | 18% | 52% | ·+1% |
| 2 | BEPNABOKOV | 4.0-1 | 4.2-1 | 85.4 | 18% | 52% | ·+1% |
| 3 | BEPBIG HAT WILLIE | 3.0-1 | 3.8-1 | 85.2 | 13% | 39% | ▼-24% |
| 5 | BEPCLANCY FANCY | 4.5-1 | 5.9-1 | 83.2 | 12% | 37% | ▼-9% |
| 6 | CESTEWIE | 10-1 | 12-1 | 81.8 | 11% | 36% | ▲+13% |
| 7 | CEPGRAYWING | 15-1 | 16-1 | 80.7 | 10% | 31% | ▲+15% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.