John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sun, May 3

Race 8

Beaugay-G3

Post: 4:46 · 1.06m · Turf · $175K purse · 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Soft pace

Only one early type; pace likely slow, helps anyone close to the leader.

1 EP — early/presser 1 P — presser 3 S — closer

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 92% · Top 4 cover 2.76 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
1SDYNAMIC PRICING1.2-11.1-189.929%79%-21%
6PLAURELIN1.6-11.3-185.726%76%-22%
2SCITY GIRL3.5-12.9-185.226%75%+18%
5EPMO FOX GIVIN6.0-111-184.012%46%+10%
4SRACING COLORS30-161-174.16%24%+15%
3SCRPSHORE WAR30-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

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