Sun, May 3
Race 9
OClm 55000n1x
Post: 5:17 · 1.13m · Turf · $88K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #8 SALT PRINCESS (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 PATTY CAKES (EP, QSP 5)
- #5 CREATIVE STUFF (E, QSP 4)
- #1 HAUNTRESS (EP, QSP 4)
2 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×4×4 key (top pick) on posts 9, 2, 8, 7, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$12.00
12 combos
Hit prob
11.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$67.07
mean $95.99
Expected ROI
-8.1%
net $-0.97
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×4×4 key (top pick) on posts [9, 2, 8, 7, 6] — hits 11.5% of simulated runs
- · At $12 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $67 (mean $96; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
9
B Contenders
2, 8, 7
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 8.3% | $57.03 | -16% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 7.4% | $54.94 | -21% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.9% | $50.93 | -33% |
| 3×5×5 part wheel | $36.00 | 30.6% | $72.67 | -15% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 21.1% | $57.03 | -25% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | ASPROTECTIVE CUSTODY | 4.0-1 | 4.5-1 | 79.6 | 22% | 59% | ▲+8% |
| 2 | BPGETTING SERIOUS | 3.0-1 | 3.0-1 | 76.4 | 18% | 52% | ▼-12% |
| 8 | BEPSALT PRINCESS | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 77.3 | 18% | 51% | ▲+23% |
| 7 | BSOUL DANCE | 5.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 77.8 | 14% | 43% | ·+1% |
| 6 | EPPATTY CAKES | 10-1 | 18-1 | 75.8 | 9% | 30% | ▲+7% |
| 4 | SWISS MOON | 2.5-1 | 3.1-1 | 72.1 | 8% | 28% | ▼-45% |
| 3 | SHIDDEN ROSE | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | 67.3 | 7% | 25% | ·-4% |
| 5 | ECREATIVE STUFF | 30-1 | 74-1 | 61.7 | 2% | 7% | ·-1% |
| 1 | EPHAUNTRESS | 30-1 | 82-1 | 57.2 | 1% | 5% | ·-3% |
| 10 | SCREPROMANTIC DANCER | 1.8-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | SCRPI'M BUZZY | 1.6-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.