Sun, May 3
Race 4
Clm 55000b
Post: 2:42 · 1m · Dirt · $60K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 CELESTIAL GLAZE (EP, QSP 8)
- #2 GEORGIA MAGIC (E, QSP 5)
- #6 DREAMBUILDER (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 3, 5, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$13.51
mean $19.27
Expected ROI
-66.1%
net $-3.97
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 5, 2] — hits 10.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $14 (mean $19; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
5, 2, 7
C Value-edge longshots
6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 10.2% | $13.51 | -74% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 14.3% | $15.00 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 17.3% | $15.00 | -69% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 18.6% | $13.51 | -76% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 28.6% | $17.75 | -73% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | APKINETIC | 1.4-1 | 1.1-1 | 88.5 | 29% | 72% | ▼-28% |
| 5 | BEPCELESTIAL GLAZE | 4.0-1 | 5.2-1 | 81.3 | 17% | 53% | ·+2% |
| 2 | BEGEORGIA MAGIC | 6.0-1 | 7.6-1 | 85.0 | 16% | 50% | ▲+14% |
| 7 | BPAPALTA | 8.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 80.5 | 13% | 42% | ▲+14% |
| 4 | SCURVINO | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 81.0 | 13% | 42% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | CEPDREAMBUILDER | 12-1 | 12-1 | 82.8 | 12% | 40% | ▲+21% |
| 1 | SCRSSIGNATOR | 4.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.