Sun, May 3
Race 3
Clm 16000
Post: 2:11 · 1m · Dirt · $40K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 SECURED LANDING (E, QSP 8)
- #4 REGISTER (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 SAGAMORE MISCHIEF (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 GOLDEN PLATE (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 2, 4, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$39.90
mean $43.72
Expected ROI
-25.2%
net $-1.51
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 4, 7] — hits 10.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $40 (mean $44; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
4, 7, 6
C Value-edge longshots
1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.5% | $27.61 | -58% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 11.8% | $27.61 | -61% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.4% | $27.62 | -46% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 14.8% | $27.61 | -63% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 26.5% | $33.43 | -39% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AESECURED LANDING | 1.8-1 | 1.6-1 | ↓1.0-1 | 84.1 | 26% | 67% | ▼-33% |
| 4 | BEPREGISTER | 3.0-1 | 3.4-1 | ↑4.5-1 | 83.4 | 22% | 61% | ▲+15% |
| 7 | BEPGOLDEN PLATE | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | ↑12-1 | 78.7 | 14% | 44% | ▲+24% |
| 6 | BSFARM TEAM | 5.0-1 | 6.8-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 77.0 | 11% | 37% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | CEPSAGAMORE MISCHIEF | 5.0-1 | 5.2-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 75.6 | 11% | 37% | ▲+9% |
| 5 | PCENTAVO | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 77.2 | 10% | 32% | ·-4% |
| 3 | SKNOX | 12-1 | 19-1 | ·10-1 | 73.0 | 6% | 21% | ·-2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.