John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sun, May 3

Race 2

Clm 40000

Post: 1:40 · 6.5f · Dirt · $65K purse · 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Contested pace

4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.

1 E — pure early 3 EP — early/presser 1 P — presser

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 86% · Top 4 cover 2.57 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
6ETRUST ISSUES3.0-13.2-187.733%80%+16%
3PSHOOT THE NICKEL5.0-16.6-185.521%65%+22%
4EPTIMAEUS3.5-14.2-185.418%58%·+2%
1EPGOLDEN SYMPHONY2.0-12.0-181.516%54%-31%
5EPUNCLE JIM8.0-110-180.112%43%+15%
2SCRSON THE HILL4.0-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.