John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sun, May 3

Race 1

Clm 62500

Post: 1:10 · 1m · Dirt · $75K purse · 5 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 5 of 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Contested pace

4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.

1 E — pure early 3 EP — early/presser 1 P — presser

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 88% · Top 4 cover 2.65 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Live Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
4EUNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL2.5-12.7-11.8-186.725%71%-20%
6EPELIMINATE3.0-13.0-11.8-186.323%68%-24%
3EPCASTLE CHAOS4.5-16.0-13.0-186.522%65%·+1%
2EPMILES AHEAD6.0-18.8-1·6.0-185.320%61%+25%
1PTHREE TECHNIQUE20-140-16.0-179.510%35%·-1%
5SCREPRANGER BATTALION1.8-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.