Sun, May 3
Race 11
LicensFeeL150k
Post: 6:19 · 6f · Turf · $150K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #9 MEGA MIL (E, QSP 7)
- #8 DO GOODER (E, QSP 5)
- #3 JODY'S PRIDE (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 CYNANE (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 SO SOPHIA (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 3, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$48.99
mean $53.80
Expected ROI
-62.6%
net $-3.75
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 3, 7] — hits 4.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $49 (mean $54; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
3, 7, 5
C Value-edge longshots
8, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 4.2% | $32.42 | -66% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 6.7% | $48.05 | -57% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.8% | $39.18 | -66% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.9% | $32.42 | -73% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 12.4% | $48.05 | -57% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ASLOVE CERVERE | 4.0-1 | 4.3-1 | 89.7 | 19% | 52% | ·+1% |
| 3 | BEPJODY'S PRIDE | 2.5-1 | 2.5-1 | 90.8 | 16% | 47% | ▼-26% |
| 7 | BEPCYNANE | 8.0-1 | 9.3-1 | 87.1 | 13% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | BPBUTTERCREAM BABE | 4.5-1 | 4.8-1 | 87.1 | 13% | 40% | ▼-7% |
| 9 | EMEGA MIL | 6.0-1 | 5.8-1 | 87.7 | 12% | 37% | ·+1% |
| 8 | CEDO GOODER | 10-1 | 14-1 | 86.1 | 12% | 37% | ▲+14% |
| 1 | PCIVETTA | 6.0-1 | 7.6-1 | 84.4 | 9% | 29% | ▼-7% |
| 4 | CEPSO SOPHIA | 30-1 | 58-1 | 80.6 | 5% | 18% | ▲+9% |
| 2 | SCREPLOST AND FOUND | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | SCRPALL CLASS | 5.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 11 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.