Sun, May 3
Race 12
Clm 55000n2l
Post: 6:49 · 1.06m · Turf · $57K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 LUCKFORYOU (E, QSP 8)
- #2 BOSSY DISH (EP, QSP 7)
- #10 WIDDERSHINS (E, QSP 7)
- #7 DOPPIO ESPRESSO (EP, QSP 6)
- #9 MAXISURE (E, QSP 6)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 11, 4, 1, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$33.93
mean $46.72
Expected ROI
-81.5%
net $-4.89
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [11, 4, 1, 2] — hits 2.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $34 (mean $47; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
11, 4
B Contenders
1, 2, 7
C Value-edge longshots
6, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.6% | $39.41 | -82% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.3% | $35.85 | -77% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.6% | $29.43 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.7% | $35.85 | -80% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 8.3% | $35.74 | -81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | APLOTUS PETAL | 5.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 75.4 | 17% | 46% | ·+4% |
| 4 | APAUTONOME | 3.5-1 | 4.7-1 | 74.8 | 15% | 43% | ▼-14% |
| 1 | BSSMILING ROSIE | 15-1 | 28-1 | 71.5 | 11% | 32% | ▲+16% |
| 2 | BEPBOSSY DISH | 12-1 | 20-1 | 71.9 | 10% | 32% | ▲+12% |
| 7 | BEPDOPPIO ESPRESSO | 15-1 | 30-1 | 69.9 | 10% | 30% | ▲+14% |
| 8 | PY'ALLREADYFORTHIS | 10-1 | 15-1 | 68.8 | 10% | 29% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | CELUCKFORYOU | 20-1 | 38-1 | 68.5 | 9% | 27% | ▲+15% |
| 9 | CEMAXISURE | 30-1 | 62-1 | 65.5 | 7% | 22% | ▲+14% |
| 3 | PSAUCY SIX | 30-1 | 76-1 | 70.7 | 7% | 21% | ▲+13% |
| 10 | EWIDDERSHINS | 20-1 | 59-1 | 66.8 | 5% | 17% | ·+5% |
| 5 | SCRPBROKEALLTHERULES | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCRPBIG MAGIC | 3.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 12 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.